forex analysis

There are two basic approaches to analyzing the currency market, fundamental analysis and
technical analysis. The fundamental analyst concentrates on the underlying causes of price
movements, while the technical analyst studies the price movements themselves.

a. Technical analysis

A Technical Analysis is what one uses to attempt to predict future price movements, based on past time framed analysis and the reading / understanding of graphics. Although within a Technical Analysis various thought patterns exist, generally all are based on historical graphics of a currency.As long as one realizes the various differences of Fundamental and Technical Analysis,both can be used to parallel one another, even though both may present different conclusions.

b. Fundamental Analysis

The study of specific factors, such as wars, discoveries, and changes in Government policies, which influence supply and demand, and consequently prices in the market place.

Fundamental analysis comprises the examination of macroeconomic indicators, asset markets and political considerations when evaluating a nation’s currency in terms of another. Macroeconomic indicators include figures such as growth rates; as measured by Gross Domestic Product, interest rates, inflation, unemployment, money supply, foreign exchange reserves and productivity. Asset markets comprise stocks, bonds and real estate. Political considerations impact the level of confidence in a nation’s government, the climate of stability and level of certainty.

Sometimes governments stand in the way of market forces impacting their currencies, and hence,
intervene to keep currencies from deviating markedly from undesired levels. Currency
interventions are conducted by central banks and usually have a notable, albeit a temporary
impact on FX markets. A central bank could undertake unilateral purchases/sales of its currency
against another currency; or engage in concerted intervention in which it collaborates with other
central banks for a much more pronounced effect. Alternatively, some countries can manage to
move their currencies, merely by hinting, or threatening to intervene.

Technical Analysis or Fundamental Analysis ?

One of the dominant debates in financial market analysis is the relative validity of the two major
tiers of analysis: Fundamental and technical. In Forex, several studies concluded that fundamental
analysis was more effective in predicting trends for the long-term (longer than one year), while
technical analysis was more appropriate for shorter time horizons (0-90 days). Combining both
approaches was suggested to be best suited for periods between 3 months and one year.
Nonetheless, further empirical evidence reveals that technical analysis of long-term trends helps
identify longer-term technical "waves", and that fundamental factors do trigger short-term
developments.

But most traders abide by technical analysis because it does not require hours of study. Technical
analysts can follow many currencies at one time. Fundamental analysts, however, tend to
specialize due to the overwhelming amount of data in the market. Technical analysis works well
because the currency market tends to develop strong trends. Once technical analysis is mastered,
it can be applied with equal ease to any time frame or currency traded.

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What is Forex ?

The Foreign Exchange market, also referred to as the "Forex" or "FX" market, is the largest financial market in the world, with a daily average turnover of well over US$1 trillion -- 30 times larger than the combined volume of all U.S. equity markets. Unlike other financial markets, the forex market has no physical location or central exchange. It is an over-the-counter market where buyers and sellers including banks, corporations, and private investors conduct business. A true 24-hour market, Forex trading begins each day in Sydney, and moves around the globe as the business day begins in each financial center, first to Tokyo, London, and New York. Unlike any other financial market, investors can respond to currency fluctuations caused by economic, social and political events at the time they occur - day or night. The huge number and diversity of players involved make it difficult for even governments to control the direction of the market. The unmatched liquidity and around-the-clock global activity make forex the ideal market for active traders.

Traditionally the forex market was only available to larger entities trading currencies for commercial and investment purposes through banks. Now trading platforms allow smaller financial institutions and retail investors access to a similar level of liquidity as the major foreign exchange banks, by offering a gateway to the primary (Interbank) market.

In the forex market currencies are always priced in pairs; therefore all trades result in the simultaneous buying of one currency and the selling of another. The objective of currency trading
is to exchange one currency for another in the expectation that the market rate or price will change so that the currency you bought has increased its value relative to the one you sold. If you have bought a currency and the price appreciates in value, the trader must sell the currency back
in order to lock in the profit. An open trade or position is one in which a trader has either bought/sold one currency pair and has not sold/bought back the equivalent amount to effectively close the position.

The first currency in the pair is referred to as the base currency, and the second currency is the counter or quote currency. This means that quotes are expressed as a unit of 1 of the first currency quoted per the other currency quoted in the pair.

As with all financial products, FX quotes include a "bid" and "ask". The bid is the price at which a market maker is willing to buy (and clients can sell) the base currency in exchange for the counter currency. The ask is the price at which a market maker will sell (and clients can buy) the
base currency in exchange for the counter currency. The difference between the bid and the ask price is referred to as the spread.

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